AmCham Update Vol. 7 #106

Demos Mark Prabowo’s Two-Year Anniversary, Stocks Fall to Six-Year Low on Downgrade Threat, UN Sec Gen Praises Indonesia during Jakarta Visit, Business gets Deadline Delay on Halal, ICT Committee meets on Personal Data Protection, Sugar Refiners Urge Swift Import Permits Amid Shortage Risk, Danantara still Tough to Assess

Oct 20, 2026

Demos Mark Two-Year Anniversary as Prabowo's Approval Falls Below 50 Percent

Police deployed more than 9,000 officers in Jakarta as student demonstrators planned to mark President Prabowo Subianto’s second year in office with protests after polls showed his popularity slipping.

The rallies were planned for several areas in Jakarta as worries over the economy and sagging public support for high-profile programs combined to drag Subianto’s approval rating below 50 percent for the first time since he took office in October 2024, according to a Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC) survey released on Oct 16.

The survey of 1,213 voting-age respondents found just 44.5 percent approved of Subianto’s performance, down from 51.1 percent in July and 81.2 percent in November 2025. Meanwhile, 53.4 percent were dissatisfied. The survey has a 95 percent confidence level.

SMRC Executive Director Deni Irvani attributed the decline to worsening public assessments of economic conditions, politics and law enforcement, as well as negative perceptions of the government’s flagship Free Nutritious Meals (MBG) and Red and White Cooperatives (KDMP) programs.

“Rather than boosting Prabowo’s popularity among the public, the programs made him less appreciated. It’s a paradox,” Deni said.

About half of respondents – 50.8 percent – described the economy as “bad” or “very bad,” while only 17 percent viewed conditions positively. Negative assessments of the political climate and law enforcement stood at 44.1 percent and 40.6 percent, respectively.

Views of the flagship programs were also weak with 61.4 percent of respondents who were aware of MBG, dissatisfied with its implementation, while 71 percent did not believe the cooperatives program would succeed.

A separate survey of 1,200 respondents by Parameter Politik Indonesia, posted by the government on Oct 18, found higher approval levels, with 65.2 percent satisfied with Subianto’s performance, and 65.4 percent approving the government’s overall performance. The survey also has a 95 percent confidence level.

The surveys differed in timing and methodology, which may explain their divergent results.

In Jakarta, the Committee to Save the People’s Sovereignty (Sadar) planned demonstrations at Tugu Proklamasi and Tugu Tani, with demands covering economic governance, corruption and other issues.

The student %u2060body of the University of Indonesia said on Oct 20 that students are protesting against recent forest fires, the drop in the stock market, and the weakening rupiah as signs of the "national economy's fragility."

Demonstrations were also planned n other major cities.

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Stocks Fall to Six-Year Low on MSCI Downgrade Threat

Indonesian stocks fell to a six-year low on Oct 19 after global index provider MSCI announced plans last week to possibly reclassify Indonesia from emerging market status to a standalone designation, citing persistent concerns over market transparency, shareholding structures and suspected coordinated trading.

That announcement on Oct 15 triggered a sharp selloff, with the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) falling 11.6 percent on Oct. 16, its steepest one-day decline since 1998. The index fell a further 5.09 percent to around 4,921 on Oct. 19, bringing the market to a six-year low. The selloff wiped out around $65 billion in market capitalization.

The JCI clawed back some of the losses on Oct 20 to close at 5,278.89, up 5.65 percent.

MSCI said its concerns centered on persistently opaque shareholding structures, suspected coordinated trading and insufficient evidence that recent regulatory reforms had improved market functioning. A final decision is due by June 30, 2027 after a period of consultation.

In response, the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) lowered the auto rejection below (ARB) limit for stocks above Rp 10 from 15 percent to 7 percent, effective Oct 19 through Dec 31. The IDX said the measure was intended to maintain orderly trading.

The move followed coordination between the Financial Services Authority (OJK), the IDX and market participants. Senior OJK official Hasan Fawzi said the regulator would continue strengthening market integrity through “measured enforcement.” On Oct 16, OJK imposed administrative fines totaling Rp 2.1 trillion on three listed companies — Dian Swastatika Sentosa, Barito Renewables Energy and Petrindo Jaya Kreasi — over alleged market manipulation.

Aletheia Capital ASEAN Specialist Angus Mackintosh said the timing of the fines suggested that OJK had already been investigating the cases before MSCI’s announcement, but called for stronger action against market participants involved in alleged abuses.

The IDX also met with MSCI on Oct 19 to seek clarification on the basis of its assessment. Following the meeting, IDX President Director Jeffrey Hendrik said the bourse will disclose whether shareholders holding at least 1 percent of a listed company are affiliated with other shareholders and exclude stocks with high shareholding concentration (HSC) from the JCI calculation.

A standalone classification would remove Indonesian securities from MSCI’s market indexes and could mean that large funds would stop buying into the IDX.

Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto has questioned MSCI’s move, saying it was not raised during a previous meeting MSCI held in Bangkok on Oct 13.

Airlangga said that relevant stakeholders have already undergone evidence-based reforms and that MSCI’s assessment of the stock market has no correlation with the actual state of Indonesia’s economy.

“There is no direct link between MSCI and the solid foundations of our economy” he said on Oct 19.

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UN Sec Gen Praises Indonesia during Jakarta Visit

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres praised Jakarta’s role in upholding international order and lauded multilateralism during a two-day visit to Indonesia

Speaking to diplomats, academics and lawmakers on Oct 19, Guterres described Indonesia as a pivotal player in overcoming global challenges from climate change to development gaps and technological threats.

“We need Indonesia’s powerful example of voice and leadership on the global stage to help renew the multilateral spirit and drive development, peace and justice in people’s lives,” Guterres said as he nears the end of his term in December.

With the multilateral system splintering, the UN Security Council unable to resolve major conflicts and respect for international law declining, Guterres called for major reforms to global governance. He urged Indonesia to help drive the reform agenda.

“Indonesia is a critical voice in these efforts. A voice that understands that the interests of developing countries must be heard and respected,” he said.

Foreign Minister Arrmanatha Nasir reaffirmed Jakarta’s commitment to multilateralism, saying that international cooperation is “not an option [but] a necessity” for Jakarta.

Guterres’ remarks followed a visit to the Indonesian Military’s Peacekeeping Mission Center in West Java, where he paid tribute to the 50 personnel who have died while serving under the UN flag. Guterres vowed to pursue accountability for the April incidents that killed four Indonesian peacekeepers in Lebanon.

“For all that you do, I salute you. Thank you for your service and sacrifice. Thank you for your dedication to peace – the most important cause of all,” Guterres said.

A day earlier, Guterres met with President Prabowo Subianto at his private residence in Hambalang, where he spent the night.

According to a read out from the cabinet secretariat, Guterres conveyed several points, including “appreciation for Indonesia’s foreign policy leadership under President Prabowo Subianto,” recognition of Subianto’s efforts toward maintaining global order and gratitude for “Indonesia’s tangible steps in supporting the Palestinian people."

Guterres and Subianto also discussed climate action, according to a UN statement. The climate talks unfolded against the backdrop of Indonesia’s forest fire crisis, which is in its fourth month, with an estimated 1.47 million hectares burned across several provinces.

Guterres said Indonesia must “protect [its] extraordinary biological diversity, including forests, seas and peatlands,” which are a “natural heritage for humanity.”

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Business gets more Breathing Room on Halal Deadlines

Responding to input from business associations, the transition period for mandatory halal certification, originally slated to end this month, has been extended by two years to give the private sector more time to comply, the Office of the Coordinating Economy Minister announced on Oct 16.

“Taking into account the readiness of the halal ecosystem, the government is extending the transition period for mandatory halal certification through a government regulation amending Government Regulation No. 42/2024,” Susiwijono Moegiarso, secretary to the coordinating economy minister, said.

Following the extension, food and beverage and related services must secure halal certification by Oct 18, 2028. The deadline also applies to imported products, slaughterhouse products and slaughtering services, subject to mutual recognition agreements for halal certifications being completed.

The deadline for traditional medicines, health supplements, cosmetics and other consumer goods was extended to Oct 17, 2028.

Over-the-counter medicines have until Oct 17, 2029 to comply, while prescription drugs face a deadline of Oct 17, 2034.

The decision reflects widespread input that many businesses were not ready for the earlier deadline and that the halal ecosystem also needed more time to prepare.

The government will adjust various regulations to reflect the extended deadlines.

The halal certification framework is based on Law No. 33/2014 on halal product assurance, amended by Law No. 6/2023 and implemented under Government Regulation No. 42/2024.

The coordinating minister’s office said the timeline was revised following feedback from business and industry associations, and that it aimed to strengthen the halal ecosystem while safeguarding consumers, giving businesses greater certainty and minimizing disruptions to trade.

Industry groups had called for a longer transition period and simplified procedures to reduce the risk of higher operating costs and supply chain disruptions.

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AmCham ICT Committee meets on Personal Data Protection

AmCham Indonesia’s ICT Committee met on Oct 16 to discuss Government Regulation 33/2026, which serves as the implementing regulation for Law 27/2022 on Personal Data Protection (PDP).

The session featured Harry Kuswara, Associate Partner at HHP Law Firm, and was moderated by Dandy Satriatama, PDP Working Group Leader and Senior Consultant at Speyside.

Harry provided an overview of the key requirements under the regulation, including more detailed provisions building on the original law, and shared practical insights on key considerations for businesses.

In the Q&A session, members raising questions about compliance priorities and how the new regulation interacts with existing rules, including Government Regulation 17/2025 on the Governance of Electronic Systems for Child Protection, also known as PP TUNAS.

AmCham Indonesia extends its appreciation to HHP Law Firm for sharing its insights and to our members for their valuable contributions to the discussion.

Sugar Refiners Urge Swift Import Permits Amid Risk of Shortage

Sugar refiners are warning that supplies of refined crystal sugar (GKR) for industry could face shortages by early 2027

Supriadi, the chairman of the Indonesian Refined Sugar Association (AGRI), urged the government to accelerate 2027 raw sugar (GKM) quotas and import permits to keep production running.

He noted on Oct 17 that the government has allocated 3.06 million metric tons of GKM for the sugar refining industry for this year. As of the end of September, there remained an unused allocation of 945,417 metric tons of GKM, he said.

Meanwhile, the stock of GKR for the same period stood at only 134,072 metric tons.

"Based on production and distribution projections, the remaining raw material [GKM] is expected to run out by November-December 2026," Supriadi said, as reported by Kompas.com.

He forecast shortages or even a complete lack of raw materials for several sugar refineries by the end of the year. Supriadi said AGRI's 11 refinery members could fully meet industrial demand but only if imported raw materials are guaranteed.

AGRI urged the government to expedite the commodity balance, the industrial requirement plan for raw sugar and the issuance of import approvals for raw sugar for 2027, taking notice of the time needed for delivery from foreign sellers.

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Danantara still Tough to Assess

With President Prabowo Subianto passing the two-year point of his presidency, investment fund Danantara’s expanding portfolio and policy role are drawing greater scrutiny as experts call for clarity on the fund’s long-term strategy and the benefits its overseas deals bring to Indonesia.

Over the past year, Danantara has invested abroad, reshaped state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and created new vehicles to support government priorities, but its governance and mandate remain murky.

“Danantara has not moved in the direction expected, and is still far from what the President himself hoped for,” said Herry Gunawan, executive director of Jakarta-based think tank NEXT Indonesia. “Things have moved forward, but nothing has really been completed. There is still a great deal of unfinished business, and it is too early to expect Danantara to contribute meaningfully to his growth target,” he told The Jakarta Post on Oct. 12.

Danantara was launched in 2025, with the idea that it would use state assets and investment to help achieve 8 percent growth by 2029. The fund, which oversees all SOEs, reports directly to the president.

Its scope has grown. In May, Danantara launched Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia (DSI), a state company designed to tighten government control over key commodity exports. In August, the Danantara Development Management Fund (DDMF) was established as a vehicle to channel funding from the state budget into infrastructure projects, including the Giant Sea Wall along Java’s northern coast and the three-million-homes program.

Danantara also aims to cut the number of SOEs from more than 1,000 to about 200 by the end of the year through closures, mergers, consolidation and divestment, with 300 already shut and more than 100 firms transferred to private ownership by October.

Danantara also inherited expensive problems including Whoosh, the Jakarta-Bandung high-speed railway. Danantara has proposed creating an “overinvestment” committee to review SOE projects that worsen debt burdens through poor investment decisions, chief operating officer Dony Oskaria said on Oct. 8.

Dony cited Krakatau Steel’s blast furnace, idled in 2019 because of high operating costs, and Kimia Farma’s new factories, which operate at just 40 percent of capacity, as examples of costly missteps.

Danantara’s contribution to industrial development and job creation remains difficult to quantify economist Dipo Satria Ramli of CORE Indonesia argued last week, while its profits do not benefit the state budget.

Benchmarking Danantara remains difficult. Danantara has claimed that it submitted consolidated financial statements for 2025 to the Supreme Audit Agency (BPK) in July but they have not yet been published.

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AmCham Cares – PepsiCo Indonesia

PepsiCo Indonesia and Bali Waste Cycle are Turning Packaging Waste into Street Signs

PepsiCo Indonesia continues to advance its packaging collection and recycling efforts by transforming used snack packaging into street signage, giving multi-layer packaging (MLP) waste a new purpose.

Developed in collaboration with Bali Waste Cycle (BWC), a local startup supported by the PepsiCo Greenhouse Program, the initiative converts waste packaging from brands including Cheetos, Lay’s, and Doritos into signage installed in public spaces across Bali. Locations such as Taman Kota Sewaka Dharma and Kemenuh Monkey River now showcase how waste can be turned into useful community infrastructure.

The signage was officially unveiled on Sept 18 at a ceremony attended by the Vice Mayor of Denpasar, representatives from PepsiCo Indonesia and Bali Waste Cycle, local government officials, and community stakeholders. Through partnerships like this, PepsiCo Indonesia supports innovative solutions that help address packaging waste while positively impacting communities.

Get to Know Our Members | MEDTRONIC INDONESIA, PT.

Get to Know Our Members | MEDTRONIC INDONESIA, PT.

Making healthcare better is Medtronic’s priority, and the company believes technology can play an even greater role in improving people’s lives. In addition to alleviating pain, restoring health, and extending lives, Medtronic works in partnership with others to create more seamless, efficient care.

Medtronic has been operating in Indonesia since 2012, offering therapies and solutions that enable greater efficiency, access, and value for healthcare systems, providers, and the people they serve. Its commitment to recognizing the worth of all employees has been acknowledged by HR Asia, which selected Medtronic as a recipient of the Best Companies to Work for in Asia™ (Indonesia Edition) Award in both 2020 and 2021.

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Update is AmCham’s regular newsletter on developments related to investment, the economy, regulations and issues related to doing business in Indonesia. It comes out three times a week. It is edited by AmCham Managing Director Donna Priadi and written by the AmCham Staff.

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