AmCham Update Vol. 7 #112

Confusion over Gibran Case, One Million+ Cyberattacks Hit Indonesian Banks, Danantara Role Scaled Back on Natural Resource Exports, Subsidized Fuel Costs Double the Pump Price, Natural Gas Shortages to Continue

Nov 10, 2026

Confusion over Gibran Case as DPR Returns

The political stakes over the possible impeachment of Vice President Gibran Rakabuming Raka are both confused and rising as Gibran may have offered to resign while high-ranking politicians connected to the Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI) distance themselves from Gibran and pledge loyalty to President Prabowo Subianto.

Gibran reportedly said in a meeting with the President on Nov 10 that he wanted to resign.

"During the discussion, the vice president expressed his intention to resign in light of the evolving situation," presidential spokesperson Prasetyo Hadi told reporters.

Prasetyo denied reports that Subianto %u2060rejected Gibran's request, but he stopped short of saying the president had accepted it. Prasetyo said Gibran may instead try to have his documents validated in an administrative court.

If he does not resign, Gibran’s fate is in the hands of the House of Representatives (DPR). Lawmakers returned from recess on Nov 10 to take up the issue following a Supreme Court ruling invalidating the education certificate Gibran used to qualify for the 2024 election.

The move against Gibran over a technical violation of the high school equivalency certificate, is widely seen as part of a battle between Subianto and his predecessor, Gibran’s father, former President Joko Widodo, a member of PSI and de facto ally of Prabowo in 2024.

Forestry Minister Raja Juli Antoni resigned from his position as PSI secretary-general on Nov 9. At roughly the same time, deputy culture minister Giring Ganesha and deputy population minister Isyana Bagoes Oka canceled their nearly decade-long memberships in PSI.

PSI, which has no DPR seats, is chaired by Widodo’s youngest son, Kaesang Pangarep. It endorsed the presidential bid of Subianto and Gibran in 2024. Gibran is not a member of any party.

Several parties in Prabowo’s wide-ranging ruling coalition have said they will take legislative action over Gibran. One step in that direction came on Nov 10 when the DPR leadership received a report concerning the right to express opinions, signed by dozens of DPR members.

That request can trigger a plenary session to discuss the case, which could result in a request being sent to the Constitutional Court for an opinion before beginning impeach proceedings.

Political analyst Agung Baskoro said impeachment calls will grow. “At this point, the relationship between Jokowi and Prabowo is being tested and is quite crucial,” he said.

The Gibran controversy comes as former police chief and Jokowi loyalist Gen Listyo Sigit Prabowo was arrested last week for allegedly wiretapping Subianto and other prominent figures without authorization.

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Indonesian Finance Sector Battered by 1.2 Million Cyberattacks in 24 Hours

Indonesia’s financial sector faced a surge of cyberattacks, with banks, finance companies and insurers targeted by 1.2 million attempted attacks during the 24-hour period ending Nov 9.

As authorities moved to strengthen cybersecurity measures, data from FortiGuard Labs, an arm of US-based cybersecurity company Fortinet, showed that attacks against the finance sector rose past 1.2 million as of the evening of Nov. 9, up from about 660,000 over the weekend. Technology companies recorded 434,000 attempts, while the government faced 163,000.

Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto said the attacks “test our systems” and called on banks to strengthen digital security. “Each bank must strengthen its cybersecurity, especially given the digital mechanisms currently in place,” he said on Nov 9.

Financial Services Authority (OJK) Banking Supervision Chief Dian Ediana Rae urged banks to remain vigilant, saying the authority’s technology supervisors had been in contact with banks’ technology departments since Nov 6. He added that banks had been instructed to closely monitor large transactions and pause any anomalous ones for verification. He said banks must routinely carry out penetration tests, cyberattack simulations and tech audits to comply with government regulations

“The OJK urges the public to remain calm, transact as usual and comply with account security protocols required by each bank,” Dian said. He added that OJK and Bank Indonesia had activated their respective Computer Security Incident Response Teams (CSIRT).

Coordinating Minister for Political, Legal, and Security Affairs Dudung Abdurachman said his ministry was working with the banking sector and the National Cyber and Crypto Agency (BSSN) to assess the impact of the attacks; he urged the public to exercise caution.

CIMB Niaga President Director and CEO Lani Darmawan said the bank was “monitoring the situation” and taking preventive measures in line with regulators’ instructions. She said CIMB Niaga remained secure and urged customers to follow the bank’s security protocols.

According to cybersecurity firm Kaspersky, Indonesia ranked as the world’s 32nd most-attacked country on Nov 9.

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Danantara Role Scaled Back as Natural Resource Export Rules Revised

The government is revising regulations governing natural resource export proceeds, scaling back the role of Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia (DSI) while allowing exporters to convert up to 100 percent of their foreign exchange earnings into rupiah.

Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto said DSI would still serve as the intermediary for reviewing export transactions submitted through its online portal, but it will not become Indonesia’s sole exporter as President Prabowo Subianto had initially proposed.

“DSI serves as the sole intermediary, while commercial transactions will continue to be carried out between the exporter and the buyer. DSI will conduct an in-depth review of these transactions,” Airlangga said on Nov 6.

DSI will review contracts and export documents before they are submitted through the Customs and Excise Information System and Automation (CEISA) portal under the Directorate General of Customs and Excise.

DSI President Director Luke Mahony said the review would cover prices, quantities, quality, codes, final destinations and the repatriation of export proceeds. The Finance Ministry said the process would not create additional costs for exporters.

Businesses remain cautious. Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) Chairman Eddy Martono warned that DSI fees could add to exporters’ costs and that delays could affect product quality.

Separately, the government also plans to revise rules on foreign exchange earnings from natural resource exports (DHE SDA), allowing exporters to convert up to 100 percent of their retained foreign currency into rupiah, up from the current 50 percent limit, Airlangga said.

The revision follows an evaluation of DHE SDA implementation. Conversions of natural resource export earnings dropped from $23.8 million in the June-August 2025 period to $14.9 million in the same period in 2026, a decline of 37.4 percent. Meanwhile, US dollar retention increased 273.1 percent, from $2.6 million to $9.7 million. Airlangga said the evaluation took into account strong demand for rupiah, particularly for corporate operations.

Center of Reform on Economics (CORE) researcher Yusuf Rendy Manilet criticized the frequent regulatory changes, arguing that inconsistent policies could make the government’s approach appear directionless.

The government expects the revised framework to take effect after the Finance Ministry completes the implementing regulation, which is expected by the end of November.

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Subsidized Fuel Costs Double the Pump Price, but No Increase in the Works

The cost of subsidized fuel is now double the domestic retail price, coordinating downstreaming minister Bahlil Lahadalia has said, noting the burden fuel subsidies put on the state budget at a time of rising global oil prices.

Bahlil said, however, subsidies will continue in order to keep the pain away from Indonesian consumers.

Bahlil, who is also energy minister, said the true cost of subsidized Pertalite fuel is double the pump price of Rp 10,000 (55 US cents) per liter. Bahlil said the government is monitoring global energy prices to ensure the burden does not pass directly to consumers.

"Do you know, ladies and gentlemen, that as a result of all this, the [actual] price of fuel has reached Rp 20,000 per liter? It is now above Rp 20,000 per liter," he said on Nov 8 during the inauguration of the Golkar Party's Maluku chapter.

The government subsidizes the two most popular fuel brands nationwide, Pertamina’s Pertalite and diesel fuel Solar.

Both are subject to annual quotas as the government uses direct subsidies and compensation to Pertamina to keep prices low.

"The current geopolitical situation is highly uncertain. Conflicts are erupting everywhere, the war in the Middle East, for instance, and their effects are being felt in other nations as well," Bahil said.

"However, President Prabowo [Subianto] has instructed me to formulate an appropriate energy policy, one that avoids placing an excessive burden on the people who rely on subsidies. Therefore, we are not increasing the prices of subsidized fuel. Regardless of market fluctuations, the price of subsidized fuel will remain unchanged until Dec. 31,” Bahlil said.

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Natural Gas Shortages to Continue as Demand Rises

Indonesia's recent move to reduce gas exports to Singapore will not ease supply gaps facing industrial plants, with export capacity likely to keep shrinking as demand races ahead of production.

Localized shortages are projected to widen through 2028. Domestic gas demand rose 4 percent year-on-year in the January-July period, while production fell 3.7 percent, according to data from the Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI) backed by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

Statistics Indonesia (BPS) recorded a nationwide LNG export volume of 6.2 million metric tons from January through September, down 23 percent from the same period in 2025 as shipments are reduced to safeguard domestic supply.

Yayan Satyakti, an energy economist at Universitas Padjadjaran, expects the volume of gas available for export to keep shrinking as production declines.

“Our calculations indicate that LNG export capacity will fall from approximately 1,490 million standard cubic feet per day [MMSCFD] in 2025 to around 950 MMSCFD by 2027, assuming domestic needs are met first. This projection does not yet account for the Eni project,” Yayan told The Jakarta Post last week, referring to the Italian company’s deep-water gas projects offshore in East Kalimantan.

The government has curtailed pipeline gas exports to Singapore by approximately 8 percent of the previous 409.5 MMSCFD volume. That gas is now channeled to a power plant run by PLN in Batam. No pipeline connects Natuna to energy-hungry Java.

Yayan argued that the real problem is misdirected investment rather than a lack of capital. While overall upstream investment rose to $15.4 billion as of 2025, exploration spending accounts for less than one-tenth of that total.

Indonesia's gas production has declined by an average of 1.9 percent per year between 2015 and 2025, according to the Energy Institute, which has not been offset by the development of new fields.

The decline coincides with a period of resource nationalism that saw several major international energy companies lose their concessions to local operators, chiefly Pertamina. The only relief on the horizon won’t come until 2028-2029, when Eni's North Hub and South Hub projects should begin production, Yayan added.

“Until then, the shortfall will likely be addressed by reducing LNG exports or importing approximately 20-36 cargoes of LNG annually,” Yayan said.

Ahmad Zuhdi Dwi Kusuma, associate principal at the Energy Shift Institute, also pointed to insufficient upstream investment.

"As pipeline gas fails to reach some consumers, LNG will become increasingly important, but at an exponentially higher cost," Zuhdi said last week.

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Update is AmCham’s regular newsletter on developments related to investment, the economy, regulations and issues related to doing business in Indonesia. It comes out three times a week. It is edited by AmCham Managing Director Donna Priadi and written by the AmCham Staff.

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