AmCham Update Vol. 7 #110

Supreme Court Rues Gibran High School Certificate Invalid, High Shareholding Concentration Stocks Bounced from IDX Index, Bahlil Rules Out Electricity Exports, Indonesia PMI Rises at Fastest Pace Since 2021, Trade Surplus Shrinks in September, Bahlil Calls for Nickel Production Cuts

Nov 03, 2026

Calls for Gibran’s Resignation Emerge after Supreme Court Ruling

Vice President Gibran Rakabuming Raka is under increasing pressure after the Supreme Court annulled the high school equivalency certificate he submitted as part of his candidacy in 2024.

On Oct 30, the Supreme Court ruled in favor of an appeal filed by lawyer Muhammad Subhan Palal, overturning an August decision by the Jakarta High Administrative Court and annulling Gibran’s high school equivalency certificate. The ruling had not been published as of Nov 1.

The underlying political impact of the case is impossible to miss since Gibran is the son of former President Joko Widodo and a potential challenger for the presidency in 2029.

Subhan argued that Gibran can no longer be vice president. “The President should immediately propose two candidates to the People’s Consultative Assembly (MPR), which would then elect one of them as the new vice president,” he said on Oct 31.

Subhan first challenged Gibran’s equivalency certificate at the Jakarta Administrative Court in February. The court dismissed the case in May, and the Jakarta High Administrative Court upheld the decision in August.

Subhan is now waiting for the Court to enforce the ruling. He said the law requires that a ruling in a case that has gone through both lower courts must be executed within 60 days.

The Supreme Court cancelled a press conference scheduled for Nov 2 to explain the ruling. Andi Julia Cakrawala, the head of the Court’s Legal and Public Relations Bureau, said the bureau had not yet received a copy of the ruling.

The ruling comes less than a month after the Constitutional Court dismissed a separate petition challenging Gibran’s eligibility, although it also questioned the validity of the certificate. On Oct 31, former Deputy Minister of Law and Human Rights Denny Indrayana, who was among the petitioners, said the Supreme Court ruling proved Gibran was ineligible and called for his resignation.

Several political parties have also responded. The National Awakening Party (PKB) said the case should be considered by the House of Representatives (DPR) in determining its response. The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), Widodo’s former party, said on Oct 30 that Gibran was ineligible to serve.

Gibran has not directly addressed the ruling. Speaking to supporters in West Sulawesi on Nov 3, he said: “Do not be easily provoked. Do not readily believe false information. Do not let a single lie or a single instance of hate speech fracture the house of brotherhood that our ancestors have built.”

Related Links:

Stocks with High Shareholding Concentration Bounced from IDX Index

The Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) began excluding stocks with high shareholding concentration (HSC) from its benchmark composite index on Nov 2 – the latest response to the Oct 16 threat of being demoted by global index provider MSCI to standalone status from its current emerging market designation.

The IDX had earlier said that 80 stocks were listed under the HSC category, accounting for about 18 percent of the index’s total weighting. These stocks are now excluded from the IDX composite index calculation but they can still be traded.

Among the HSC stocks are issuers with large capitalization, including PT Bayan Resources (BYAN) and PT Barito Renewable Energy (BREN), which have market capitalization of Rp 305 trillion (US$19.29 billion) and Rp 240 trillion, respectively. Bayan Resources has been the subject of a controversial takeover by an ally of the president.

The Jakarta Composite Index closed on Nov 3 at 4,904.29, down 192.54, a 3.78 percent drop.

IDX President Director Jeffrey Hendrik told reporters on Oct 31 that the weight of the removed stocks would be redistributed to other index stocks. Jeffrey has said the move was intended to create a “more credible price index with higher integrity” given the “potential risks” associated with shares that have concentrated ownership.

Mirae Asset Sekuritas analyst Nafan Aji Gusta said in a research note on Nov 2 that the removal of the stocks would improve the quality of the index because the remaining stocks would reflect “more adequate public ownership.”

The index was expected to face resistance at levels between 5,246 and 5,326, with support levels of 4,969 and 4,907, in line with the close on Nov 3.

The founder of Stocknow.id Hendra Wardana also said omitting such stocks should eventually help the benchmark index reflect broader ownership and healthier liquidity, assuming continued market reforms bring greater transparency and credible law enforcement to curb collusion and manipulation.

MSCI has warned repeatedly that the IDX’s “investability” was in question due to persistently opaque shareholding structures and suspicion of coordinated trading behavior. MSCI remains unconvinced that various announced reforms are enough to correct market flaws. A decision on demotion is due next year.

Indonesia has the worst performing stock market in the world for 2026 as foreign investors have fled over the MSCI warnings, which began in January.

Related Links:

Bahlil Says Electricity Exports are ‘Not Happening’

Indonesia is not able to export electricity, Energy Minister Bahlil Lahadalia has said, because domestic needs take priority.

“I have already announced that Indonesia will not be in a position to export electricity anytime soon. We still need the electricity ourselves. It’s not happening,” Bahlil said on Nov 2, during the Minerba Convex event at JIEXPO in Kemayoran.

The move comes despite long negotiations with Singapore and the island nation granting conditional approvals for firms to import low-carbon electricity from Indonesia.

Bahlil did not name any country in his remarks. He also urged state asset fund Danantara not to “give in to lobbying" over the issue, saying the authority for such matters lies with the energy ministry.

“I have told Danantara: Do not let yourselves be lobbied,” he said. “The dignity of the state represents the dignity of the 280 million people who make up this nation.”

The remarks follow earlier comments that pricing is the main obstacle to planned solar power exports to Singapore.

Speaking to reporters on Nov. 2, Bahlil said Indonesia remained open to exporting electricity but would prioritize domestic needs if buyers were unwilling to meet its price.

“As long as the price is right… that is possible. But if the price is not right, we will prioritize domestic needs,” he said, according to Antara.

Singapore and Indonesia signed three memorandums of understanding last year on green electricity exports, green industrial zone development and carbon capture and storage cooperation.

In 2024, Singapore's Energy Market Authority (EMA) granted conditional approval to import up to 3.4 GW of renewable electricity from Indonesia by Indonesian-led consortiums Pacific Medco Solar Energy, Adaro Green, Batamindo Green Energy and Vanda RE.

The projects represent an estimated Rp 308 trillion ($17.14 billion) in investment.

The initiative has continued to move forward over the last two years despite the lack of final export approval. During a bilateral leaders’ retreat in July, President Prabowo Subianto appointed Danantara to oversee electricity exports to Singapore.

In July, Bahlil was already tapping the brakes. “We want a win-win [deal],” he said at the time. “It’s not mutually beneficial for now, but I think we will soon arrive at that point.”

Related Links:

Indonesia's PMI Expands to 54.0, Fastest Pace in 31 Months

Indonesia’s manufacturing sector expanded at its fastest pace in 31 months in October, with the S&P Global Indonesia Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rising to 54.0 from 52.4 in September.

A figure above 50.0 indicates expansion.

S&P Global credited stronger domestic and export demand. New orders have increased for three consecutive months, the fastest growth since October 2021, supported by stronger consumer confidence and new product launches.

Manufacturers increased raw material purchases and built-up input inventories to meet stronger demand, while finished-goods inventories declined at their fastest rate since August 2020. Rising demand also put pressure on production capacity, with backlogs increasing for a fourth consecutive month.

“Strong demand kept capacity in the goods-producing sector under pressure, but bodes well for activity in the coming months,” S&P Global Market Intelligence economist Usamah Bhatti said in the report on Nov 2.

However, the stronger activity did not translate into faster job creation, with employment growth slowing from September. Manufacturers also faced higher input costs due to rising raw material prices and unfavorable exchange rates, prompting some firms to raise prices.

Industry Minister Muhammad Sarmuji said the reading was “an indication that national industrial activity continues to move in a better direction,” while Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto described the increase as “a sign of market optimism regarding the economy.”

Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry Vice Chairman Erwin Aksa, however, said the higher PMI did not necessarily indicate a fundamental improvement in industrial competitiveness. “For the business sector, what matters most is not just an increase in the PMI, but the source of that growth,” Erwin said on Nov 2.

Indonesian Employers Association Chair Shinta Kamdani viewed the increase as positive but noted that the recovery remained uneven across manufacturing subsectors. “An improvement in manufacturing activity is beginning to be felt, though the intensity of the recovery varies across sectors,” she said.

Related Links:

Indonesia Trade Surplus Shrinks in September

Indonesia’s trade surplus narrowed in September due to rising imports of costly energy and industrial inputs despite strong gains from exports.

At a press conference on Oct 2, Statistics Indonesia (BPS) said the country posted a trade surplus of $3.36 billion in September, down from $3.55 billion in August and $4.20 billion a year ago, as exports rose 11.9 percent year-on-year (yoy) to $27.6 billion while imports climbed 18.4 percent to $24.2 billion.

On Nov 2, BPS deputy Ateng Hartono told reporters, “The September trade surplus was primarily supported by non-oil and gas commodities, which recorded a surplus of $5.67 billion.”

“Meanwhile, the oil and gas trade balance posted a $2.31 billion deficit, with petroleum products and crude oil being the main contributors,” Ateng said.

A net oil importer, Indonesia saw oil and gas imports rise 23.94 percent yoy to $631.4 million in September, driven by a 37 percent jump in refined petroleum products that more than offset a 7 percent decline in crude oil purchases.

Meanwhile, the cumulative trade surplus reached $10.61 billion in the January-September period, with a $34.21 billion surplus in non-oil and gas products and a $23.6 billion deficit in oil and gas.

Over that period, Indonesia had its largest bilateral trade surplus with the United States, contributing $14.26 billion to the overall surplus. India was in second place at $10.59 billion and then the Philippines at $6.48 billion.

Indonesia had its largest trade deficit with China over the nine months at $21.20 billion, followed by Singapore and Australia.

The country’s streak of monthly trade surpluses that started in early 2020 ended with a $1.6 billion deficit in May as fuel prices rose due to conflict in the Middle East. The trade surplus returned with a small bump in July.

The pressure will likely continue as energy imports pick up due to the year-end holiday travel season.

“We expect the trade surplus to narrow substantially toward the year-end as September’s energy import relief proves temporary,” Faiz Irman, lead economist at Bank Danamon, wrote in a note on Nov 2. “Export gains and lower oil and gas imports helped sustain September’s surplus, but we expect higher oil import volumes and elevated prices to widen the energy deficit in the coming months.”

Related Links:

Bahlil Calls for Nickel Production Cuts

Coordinating Minister for Downstreaming and Energy Transition Bahlil Lahadalia wants to slow down Indonesian nickel production in the face of a global glut and lower prices.

Speaking on Nov 2, Bahlil indicated he would cut the nickel production quota in the budget work plan for2027. He instructed officials to implement the reduction policy,

The price of nickel is currently below $16,000 per ton, compared to earlier prices of $17,000 to $18,000 per ton. According to Bahlil, the low price has been triggered by overproduction and an oversupply of almost 800,000 tons.

Indonesia has staked much of its economic future on nickel and is the world’s largest producer.

Bahlil asked industry players and mining entrepreneurs to refrain from boosting production. According to Bahlil, production controls are needed to maintain prices and prevent other countries from stockpiling Indonesian nickel at a low price.

Related Links:

Bali Tech Week 2026: Strengthening Digital Collaboration

The Ministry of Communication and Digital Affairs (Komdigi) held Bali Tech Week 2026 October 19-23 at the Bali Beach Convention Center in Sanur, bringing together government officials, businesses, startups, investors and academics to explore digital investment, artificial intelligence (AI) and regional collaboration.

Under the theme “Archipelago Ascending: Advance Together, Innovate Further,” the event featured 13 technology-related programs supported by Telkom Indonesia as Founding Partner, alongside strategic partners Telkomsel, GoTo and InJourney, as well as other event organizing partners.

The HUB.ID Global Summit connected 81 startups, 45 investors and 35 corporations from 13 countries, while the Indonesia Game Developer Exchange featured 244 game studios and 66 publishers from 31 countries.

The event also highlighted AI developments, including GoTo’s launch of a 27-billion-parameter open-source language model supporting Indonesian and regional languages, and Telkomsel’s introduction of nine local AI solutions.

Minister of Communication and Digital Affairs Meutya Hafid said that digital connectivity should support economic growth, improve public services and ensure regulatory certainty.

Discussions also addressed cybersecurity, digital infrastructure and ASEAN cooperation. Komdigi outlined four follow-up priorities covering infrastructure mapping, technology adoption, AI talent development and regulatory alignment to strengthen Indonesia’s digital ecosystem.

AmCham Indonesia is proud to have supported the event as a community partner. See the attached press release for further details.

PRESS RELEASE

Get to Know Our Members | MONDELEZ INDONESIA

Get to Know Our Members | MONDELEZ INDONESIA

Mondelèz Indonesia is part of Mondelèz International, a global snacking leader with products such as chocolate, biscuits, gum, candy and powdered drinks. The company is proud to have iconic global brands like Oreo, KRAFT cheese, Cadbury Dairy Milk, and Toblerone, as well as Biskuat, an innovative local brand.

Guided by the global purpose to empower people to snack right, Mondelèz inspires consumers to snack more mindfully through the #NgemilBijak campaign. It is committed to making snacks the right way, with a positive impact on people and the planet.

Now is the Time to Join AmCham!

We offer a full slate of meetings, events, and information for our community. But we can only do this through the support of our members. If you are not yet an AmCham member please join now.

AmCham Indonesia is open to all companies with an interest in US business relations and we have many non-American members.

We are a community and we welcome you!

Reach us at [email protected] or click below!

JOIN AMCHAM

Update is AmCham’s regular newsletter on developments related to investment, the economy, regulations and issues related to doing business in Indonesia. It comes out three times a week. It is edited by AmCham Managing Director Donna Priadi and written by the AmCham Staff.

See All Events

InvestmentReport

See All Reports See AmCham Update

Twitter Feed

Tweets by TwitterDev

Video Gallery

Photo Gallery